Where We Are Now, Crypto Momentum Meets Market Reality

Potential drop soon

As of April 2025, the financial landscape is at a pivotal juncture. On one hand, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to assert dominance in the cryptocurrency space. On the other, the U.S. economy has officially entered a recession, and markets such as the S&P 500 are showing signs of significant correction creating both uncertainty and opportunity across asset classes.

According to the Alt Coin Seasson Index:

https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/alt-coin-season

 the ASI sits at just 16. This means only 22% of the top 100 Altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 90 days. We are not in an Altseason. Bitcoin’s dominance remains firmly in place, bolstered by institutional inflows, including ETFs and corporate treasury allocations.

Bitcoin is trading around $93,000, nearing its all time highs. However, this momentum is starting to appear frothy. Social media sentiment is overly bullish, which often precedes local tops and increased volatility.

That said, there’s a historical nuance to remember: altcoin seasons often follow low ASI values like we’re seeing now. In early 2024, a similarly low ASI marked the beginning of a powerful Altcoin rally. Coins like Stacks (STX) and Render (RNDR) are showing early signs of life, but broader participation hasn’t arrived yet. The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to 0.28, indicating that capital hasn’t rotated into Ethereum or other major alts.

For an altcoin season to truly begin, Bitcoin’s dominance must decline, signaling risk appetite and capital rotation toward smaller cap assets. That hasn’t happened yet.

Outside of crypto, the traditional financial world is under pressure. The U.S. officially entered a recession this quarter, marked by two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, weakening job growth, and deteriorating consumer confidence.

The S&P 500, which rallied throughout Q4 2024 and early 2025, is now showing signs of a technical correction, with many analysts pointing to overvaluation across tech and speculative sectors. Institutions are moving toward defensive positioning: utilities, healthcare, and yes, non correlated assets like Bitcoin.

This macro environment is both a threat and a catalyst. On one side, a broader risk-off sentiment could hurt Altcoins and speculative plays. On the other, Bitcoin’s narrative as a hedge against traditional markets is being tested and so far, it’s holding strong.

What comes next?

  • If the S&P 500 continues to slide, and the recession deepens, capital may flee riskier altcoins.
  • If Bitcoin holds or pushes higher, it could absorb liquidity from traditional markets, reinforcing its digital gold thesis.
  • If BTC dominance declines, expect altcoins to rally, especially those with real utility, AI integrations, or scaling narratives.

This is not an altseason, yet. But we may be approaching an inflection point.

Monitor closely:

  • Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
  • Altcoin Season Index (ASI)
  • ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC ratios
  • S&P 500 support levels (especially 4,000–4,100 zone)

Strategy Tip: Stay nimble. Accumulate selectively. Preserve capital. Altseason rewards those who prepare early, not those who chase late.