Bitcoin at the “Discount Time” of the Cycle,

Is a Bear Market Imminent?

Bitcoin appears to be entering what many cycle theorists call the “discount time” or late phase of its bullish cycle. In simpler terms: if history is of any guidance, the logic suggests that a bear market could arrive very soon perhaps it already has.

You’re right to note that it’s notoriously difficult to time market tops perfectly. But given past bull market behavior, the remaining runway for continued upward momentum tends to shrink as the cycle matures. In some cycles, a final late rally (for example, around year-end) is possible, but that also raises the risk of a sharper reversal soon afterward. In our scenario, we propose a potential peak followed by a decline to between USD 35,000 and USD 50,000. Let’s examine how plausible that is, what the risks and counterarguments are, and possible alternative trajectories.

Cycle Patterns & Parallels

  • Bitcoin’s historical bull/bear cycles tend to run in ~4-year rhythms, often tied to the “halving” events (when mining rewards are cut in half). 
  • Analysts now suggest the current cycle may peak sometime between mid October and mid November 2025. 
  • After such peaks, past cycles have often seen declines of 50%–70% (or more in extreme cases) over the following 12–18 months. 

Signs That Support a Bear Phase

  • Cycle exhaustion / discount time: The concept of “discount time” suggests that the market is running out of stea, the “easy money” phase is over, and we’re entering a more precarious stage. Your intuition is that the time is up (or nearly so), especially if the final leg upward is weaker or extended.
  • On chain & sentiment metrics flipping: Some on chain indicators, like the RHODL Ratio (which compares long term holder realized value to short term holdings), have shown signs of stress, which can indicate momentum is shifting away from new buyers and toward accumulation or caution.  Moreover, some analysts detect waning strength in derivatives, traders moving positions off exchanges, or sentiment divergence (price rising while fewer participants remain confident). 
  • Analyst forecasts & warnings: Several commentators are sounding alarms. For example, some analyses predict that October 2025 could mark the beginning of a bear market, with bottom targets near USD 50,000.  Others suggest that if the 4 year cycle theory holds, Bitcoin might “run out of time” soon. 

These signals validate the idea that risk should be more heavily managed in the near term.

It’s important to consider counterpoints, the picture is not uniformly bearish.

  • Late cycle rallies are common Even in mature bull markets, a “Christmas rally” or end of year push is not unprecedented. Investors expecting that may continue buying, especially institutional capital flowing via ETFs or macro allocations.
  • Strong fundamentals and capital inflows: Some bullish forecasts see Bitcoin reaching USD 200,000 or more by year end, citing continued ETF flows, macro inflation hedging, and institutional interest. 
  • Cycle theory is probabilistic, not deterministic: Patterns repeat but never exactly. There may be structural changes now (e.g. more institutional participation, regulatory shifts, macro volatility) that make this cycle deviate from history.
  • Support zones and “floor” expectations: Some models suggest future bear market bottoms might land in ranges like USD 60,000 to USD 80,000, not as deeply as USD 35,000. 

Thus, while a sharp decline is a scenario to heed, it is not the only plausible path.

Let’s break down the scenario proposed step by step and assess the plausibility:

  • Final rally / topping phase You anticipate that the cycle may run just a bit longer possibly driven by a late surge (e.g. around holiday season) before topping out. That is consistent with historical patterns. If Bitcoin pushes to new all time highs (say USD 120,000–150,000 or more), that could attract more speculative buying and stretch valuation multiples but it also raises the risk that a reversal will be sharper.
  • Peak & reversal After the peak, in your scenario, the price falls precipitously to USD 35,000–50,000. That would imply a decline of 70%+ from a high (depending on where the peak is). Historically, Bitcoin has had steep drawdowns but 70%+ is extreme and closer to “crypto crash” territory. Most cycles don’t show such a deep correction (though some do in adverse conditions).
  • Timing & duration For your scenario to happen, the bear leg would need to unfold relatively quickly (months to a couple of years), otherwise the cumulative decline would stretch market confidence too thin.
  • Catalysts & triggers Such a collapse would likely need strong catalysts macro crises (e.g. recession, tightening monetary policy, regulatory crackdown), contagion in crypto / financial markets, failure of leverage, etc.