Bitcoin 2025 Price Projections: Correction, Rising Wedge, and Bearish Outlook

Take precautions and position yourself wisely

Bitcoin has experienced a sharp rally in 2025, climbing from around $75,000 to nearly $125,000 with very limited pauses. However, the latest weekly and monthly charts indicate that the market is entering its usual corrective phase, one that historically lasts six weeks to four months, often coinciding with seasonal weakness in global equities during August September. This correction is not unexpected but may mark the beginning of a larger structural shift.

The RSI on the higher timeframe shows a bearish divergence, while price continued higher, momentum failed to confirm the move. Such divergences have historically preceded medium term corrections or even the onset of larger bear cycles in Bitcoin.

Rising Wedge Pattern

On the weekly chart (as seen in the uploaded graphic), Bitcoin is trading within a rising wedge, a classical bearish continuation/reversal structure. Unless broken to the upside which has a low probability the wedge is likely to resolve with a downside breakout around November December 2025. This would fit well with the cycle structure, where post halving peaks often occur within 12–18 months, followed by a prolonged bear market.

Momentum and ADX Weakness

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator (SQZMOM) is rolling over from its peak, suggesting that bullish strength is waning. The ADX, currently under 30, highlights that the strength of the trend is declining, a signal that the parabolic uptrend may have exhausted itself.

Price Projections

  • Maximum Upside: Based on the wedge resistance and momentum exhaustion, the maximum realistic upside appears capped at $140,000–$150,000. Anything beyond that would require renewed liquidity inflows and macro risk-on conditions, both of which are currently weakening.
  • Corrective Targets: Following the wedge breakdown, Bitcoin could retest historical support levels between $50,000 and $40,000, aligning with previous cycle drawdowns of 65–70% from peak to trough.
  • Timing: The breakdown is expected between November 2025 and early 2026, with volatility and sideways action likely in the interim.

As in every cycle, altcoins are likely to suffer disproportionate drawdowns. Historically, alts correct 80–90% from peak valuations during bear markets. Many smaller projects without solid fundamentals may not recover, especially given increased regulatory and liquidity pressures.

  • Survivors: Projects like Solana and XRP have managed to secure strong price recoveries in 2025, but they still face significant challenges to reclaim their 2021 bull market highs.
  • Casualties: Weakly capitalized tokens or those dependent solely on hype may vanish altogether in the next bear market.

The timing of this correction aligns with the expected equity market downturn in Q3 2025, a seasonal weakness that often drags Bitcoin lower due to its correlation with risk assets. Liquidity tightening, interest rate policy, and global economic uncertainty will further weigh on digital assets

The current setup suggests that Bitcoin’s parabolic rally is giving way to a controlled correction, likely transitioning into a full fledged bear market by late 2025. While a final push to $140,000–$150,000 cannot be ruled out, the technical structure points toward a long term downtrend with a potential bottom near $40,000–$50,000. Investors should prepare for increased volatility, capital rotation, and a high attrition rate among altcoins.